Roula Khalaf, the Editor of the FT, handpicks her preferred articles for the weekly publication.
The introduction of the calculator in 1979 was initially perplexing, with users struggling to grasp its functionality. The concept of a grid of numbers displayed on a screen was unfamiliar and puzzling.
Little did they realize that the rows and columns of a spreadsheet could offer practicality beyond mere decoration, as detailed in Keith Houston’s latest book “Empire of the Sum” focusing on the pocket calculator. Users could input specific numbers into the system grid, essentially replicating their manual calculations with a calculator over the past few decades. They were accustomed to manually jotting down numbers on gridded 11 by 17-inch paper designed for accounting purposes.
The inventor of the online calculator, Dan Bricklin, along with his colleagues Bob Frankston and Dan Fylstra, encountered a significant challenge. During Frankston’s presentation of their solution “VisiCalc” at the 1979 National Computer Conference, the audience consisted mostly of friends and acquaintances. Frankston noted that only two strangers attended the presentation, both of whom left before it concluded.
In a previous discussion, I emphasized the importance of examining past technologies to gain insights into the future of generative AI.
By exploring earlier innovations, we can glean valuable insights into the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead.
This time, let’s delve into Bricklin’s groundbreaking creation—the modern spreadsheet. Despite its shaky start, VisiCalc swiftly gained widespread acclaim. Frankston could hardly have envisioned that within three years, Apple II computers would be marketed as “VisiCalc accessories,” with users willing to pay \(2,000 for access to the spreadsheet—a significant leap from the \)100 miracle witnessed at the 1979 presentation.
Notably, it was the accountants who first recognized the potential of the spreadsheet. Bricklin recalled that when shown to a finance professional accustomed to labor-intensive financial tasks, they would react with astonishment, exclaiming, “I spent all year doing that,” before swiftly embracing the new technology.
Both the modern spreadsheet and generative AI are software applications that compress time, a striking parallel. Tasks that previously took days or hours can now be completed within seconds. So, what insights can we draw from the evolution of electronic spreadsheets regarding generative AI?
Firstly, when implemented effectively, innovative systems can rapidly outpace traditional methods. Digital spreadsheets revolutionized manual accounting processes, significantly enhancing efficiency and productivity. The impact was transformative, leading to a surge in the number of accountants and auditors, underscoring the disruptive potential of technology.
Secondly, the ripple effects on the labor market may not always align with initial expectations. Despite the widespread adoption of spreadsheets, the demand for accounting professionals continued to rise, albeit with a shift towards more strategic and analytical roles, delegating routine tasks to technology.
The question of whether generative AI will empower individuals or displace traditional roles remains unanswered. Could it elevate mundane tasks, allowing humans to focus on more creative endeavors, akin to the impact of calculators on accounting practices?
The rapid pace of technological advancement prompts us to ponder the future implications of generative AI. While early experiments demonstrate enhanced productivity, particularly among less skilled workers, uncertainties persist regarding the extent of transformation and its long-term effects.
The analogy of spreadsheets serves as a cautionary tale, highlighting the importance of responsible and informed usage. Errors stemming from misuse, such as incorrect formulae or data misinterpretation, underscore the need for vigilance and precision in leveraging technological tools.
In the realm of generative AI, there is a parallel to be drawn with the ubiquitous yet often misunderstood nature of spreadsheets. Just as users sometimes misuse Excel, failing to adhere to established protocols, the potential pitfalls of hasty adoption and inadequate understanding of AI capabilities loom large.
The question remains: can generative AI fulfill the lofty expectations depicted in the video by FT Tech?
For young readers, Tim Harford’s latest book “The Truth Detective” (Wren & Rook) offers engaging insights.
Stay updated on our latest features by following @FTMag for real-time updates on our stories.
