In 2018, Dario Amodei was employed at OpenAI. Contemplating the potential of artificial intelligence (A.I.) models, he pondered the impact of increasing the volume of data fed to such systems. This curiosity led him and his colleagues to embark on a study, revealing that the A.I.’s performance didn’t just improve linearly with more data; rather, it exhibited exponential growth. Initially, the A.I.’s capabilities experienced gradual enhancement, but eventually surged dramatically, resembling a hockey stick curve.
Amodei currently serves as the CEO of Anthropic, his own A.I. company, which recently unveiled Claude 3 — widely regarded as one of the most advanced A.I. models to date. He remains steadfast in his belief that A.I. development follows an exponential trajectory, guided by scaling laws. According to him, we are currently navigating the steepest ascent of this growth curve.
Conversations with A.I. developers often unveil futuristic scenarios that swiftly transition from the realm of science fiction to tangible possibilities within the next couple of years. During a discussion on the show, I prompted Amodei to share his insights on the imminent future of A.I. What groundbreaking advancements are on the horizon? What are his primary concerns? Moreover, how should societies grappling with adaptation challenges and governments sluggish in response mechanisms brace themselves for the anticipated pace of transformation? What implications does this trajectory hold for the broader populace?
For the full dialogue, tune in to “The Ezra Klein Show” on the NYT Audio App, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, or your preferred podcast platform. Explore a curated list of book recommendations from our esteemed guests.
This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was crafted by Rollin Hu, with fact-checking by Michelle Harris. Jeff Geld serves as our senior engineer, while Claire Gordon assumes the role of senior editor. The production team includes Annie Galvin, Kristin Lin, and Aman Sahota. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy managed by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. Annie-Rose Strasser is the executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio. Special acknowledgment to Sonia Herrero.
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