### Futuristic Scientist Forecasts for 2024: Enhanced Components, Increased Layoffs, and AI Integration in Game Design

Every year, a group of esteemed analysts is consulted to provide insights into the future trends in the gaming industry. This year, the panel comprises returning experts like Lisa Cosmas Hanson from Niko Partners, Karol Severin and Perry Gresham from Midia Research, Dr. Serkan Toto from Kantan Games, and Piers Harding-Rolls from Ampere Analysis. Joining them is Tom Wijman, a lead analyst at Newzoo, who will be evaluating the predictions made in 2023.

Lisa Cosmas Hanson and Niko Partners

Last Year’s Predictions

• Hybrid Monetization: The prediction about mobile, PC, and console games embracing hybrid monetization was generally accurate, with the exception of advertising on consoles.
• Game M&A: The forecast of a significant dip in game-related M&A deal value in 2023 came true.
• China’s Game Titles: The anticipation of imported game titles in Mainland China receiving ISBN licenses in 2023 was confirmed.
• Blizzard in China: The prediction of Blizzard re-entering China after parting ways with NetEase did not materialize as expected.
• VTuber Industry: The expectation of closer ties between the VTuber industry and Japan’s games industry was validated.
• Korean Game Rating Agency: The restructuring of the Korean game rating agency following the 2022 scandal was accurately foreseen.
• Blockchain Games: The projection of a decline in blockchain games in Southeast Asia was confirmed.
• Esports Growth: The forecast of esports tournaments being held in a hybrid online/offline format was accurate.
• Mobile Shooters: The prediction about mobile shooters driving esports growth in 2023 was partially true.

2024 Predictions

• Global Revenue Share: Asia and MENA are expected to contribute over 60% of global PC and mobile games revenue.
• Out of App Monetization: Anticipated to represent 25% of mobile game spending in Southeast Asia.
• Major Acquisition: Predicted a video game acquisition exceeding $2.5 billion.
• Female Gamers: Forecasts the ratio of female gamers in India and MENA to surpass 40%.
• Instant Games: Expects over one billion Monthly Active Users (MAUs) for instant games in Asia and MENA.
• New Console Hardware: Predicts new console hardware announcements in 2024.
• Generative AI: Foresees the implementation of Generative AI in games for enhanced player experiences.
• Esports Evolution: Expects a shift in the global esports landscape with a focus on Asia and MENA.
• Blizzard’s Return: Predicts Blizzard’s official re-entry into the Chinese market.
• Import Games in China: Forecasts over 100 imported games receiving approval for release in China.

Karol Severin and Perry Gresham, Midia Research

Last Year’s Predictions

• Value in Games: Correctly predicted the importance of value in games amid economic challenges.
• VR Growth: Accurately anticipated the rise of VR ownership and usage in 2023.
• Console Market: Misjudged the narrowing of PlayStation’s lead by Xbox in console ownership.

2024 Predictions

• Industry Growth: Forecasts a modest 2.5% growth in the global games industry.
• AI Impact: Expects AI to revolutionize game development and increase game releases.
• Subscription Services: Predicts games subscription growth outpacing software growth.
• Major Acquisition: Forecasts another $100 million-plus acquisition in the gaming industry.
• Shift in Time Spent: Expects games and social media to consume more entertainment time.

Dr. Serkan Toto, Kantan Games

Last Year’s Predictions

• Price Increase: Correctly predicted rising prices, especially in subscriptions.
• Crypto in Games: Anticipated more games using crypto, a trend expected to continue in 2024.
• Recession Impact: Forecasted minimal impact of the recession on the gaming industry.

2024 Predictions

• Switch Successor: Predicts the launch of the Nintendo Switch 2 at $400.
• Saudi Arabia’s Gaming Influence: Expects significant moves from Saudi Arabia in the gaming sector.
• AI Advancements: Foresees AI playing a larger role in game development.
• Crypto in Big IPs: Predicts Square Enix’s launch of a major crypto game using a popular IP.

Piers Harding-Rolls, Ampere Analysis

Last Year’s Predictions

• Microsoft-Activision Merger: Correctly predicted the merger with regulatory concessions.
• Console Market Stability: Accurately anticipated the stabilization and growth of the console market.
• Game Pass Growth: Correctly forecasted significant growth in Game Pass subscriptions.

2024 Predictions

• Industry Trends: Expects ups and downs in the gaming industry with a focus on generative AI.
• Microsoft and Activision: Forecasts Microsoft challenging EA in console player numbers.
• Mobile Expansion: Predicts Xbox’s strategic move into mobile gaming.
• Market Performance: Expects low single-digit growth across the gaming sector in 2024.

Tom Wijman, Newzoo

Last Year’s Predictions

• AAA to AA Transition: Predicted more publishers shifting to service-based models, a trend that has not fully materialized.
• Microsoft-Activision Deal: Correctly anticipated the deal and its regulatory impact.
• Hybrid Monetization: Expected hybrid monetization strategies but noted a lack of significant impact from advertising.
• M&A Trends: Forecasted a decline in M&A appetite, a trend that continued throughout 2023.
• Mobile Challenges: Accurately predicted challenges in mobile game user acquisition post-ATT implementation.
• Cloud Gaming Evolution: Correctly anticipated cloud gaming providers embracing Platforms as a Service.

2024 Predictions

• Industry Rebound: Forecasts a robust rebound in 2024 driven by the Xbox Series and PlayStation 5 user base.
• Nintendo Switch 2: Predicts the launch of Nintendo Switch 2 with a 3D Mario game.
• Live Service Market: Expects a shift away from live service domination and market saturation.
• Xbox’s Expansion: Forecasts Xbox’s entry into the mobile market with an Android store.
• AI in Game Production: Expects selective use cases of AI tools in game development.
• Subscription Services: Predicts a flat growth in multi-game subscriptions with a focus on profitability.

These predictions offer valuable insights into the gaming industry’s future landscape, highlighting key trends and developments to watch out for in the coming year.