Mike Dolan’s Business Forecast for the Day in the U.S. and International Markets
Amidst the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, the ever-evolving realm of artificial intelligence remains a focal point in business discussions, while a temporary ceasefire in Gaza has contributed to a reduction in prevailing uncertainty indicators.
Nvidia (NVDA) has experienced a remarkable 240% year-to-date surge, drawing significant investor attention during the AI upsurge. The surge in demand for its advanced cards due to AI applications has been noteworthy, with the company surpassing previous records for quarterly earnings, profits, and forecasts in a single overnight update.
Despite facing challenges due to the substantial increase in its stock price this year, Nvidia managed to maintain its position, with only a marginal decrease of less than 0.5% in after-hours trading. The company remains optimistic about offsetting any setbacks in China through overseas demand, projecting a current-quarter revenue of \(20 billion, plus or minus 2%, surpassing analysts’ consensus of \)17.86 billion.
Meanwhile, the leadership turmoil at OpenAI, the developer behind ChatGPT, continued to captivate headlines. Following his resignation, Sam Altman is set to return as CEO, putting an end to speculations about the company’s future in the AI landscape.
In a contrasting development, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao stepped down and confessed to breaching U.S. anti-money laundering laws, culminating in a $4.3 billion settlement that concluded a thorough investigation into the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange.
Despite the flurry of news, business activities have slowed down, with futures remaining stable overnight and Wall Street stocks closing marginally lower on Tuesday. The VIX fear index has dropped to 13, signaling a significant decline in implied volatility towards the year-end, while bond and currency market volatilities have also decreased notably.
Aggregate annual profit growth for the quarter stands at over 6%, exceeding earlier forecasts by more than fourfold, with Nvidia being the final megacap to report in the Q3 earnings season. Treasury yields have declined as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting minutes, attributing a bond squeeze in October to heightened demand for longer-dated securities.
Looking ahead to the holiday season and housing market trends, cautionary statements from prominent U.S. retailers like Best Buy and Nordstrom regarding softening sales during the festive period have resonated. Additionally, reports of a 13-year low in existing home sales in the U.S. last quarter have underscored economic concerns.
As global markets await key economic indicators and events, including updates on U.S. durable goods, weekly jobless claims, the University of Michigan’s sentiment survey, and Governor Tiff Macklem’s remarks from the Bank of Canada, the trading day promises significant developments.
Events to Watch:
- U.S. durable goods data, weekly jobless claims, and November sentiment survey from the University of Michigan
- Governor Tiff Macklem’s speech at the Bank of Canada
- Autumn Statement resources discussion by English finance minister Jeremy Hunt
- French political system elections
- U.S. Treasury’s auction of four-week bills
- Earnings reports from Deere, Tremor, Diocal, Jiayin, EHang, GDS, Baozun, and Lexinfintech
Graphics Reuters
