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Considering the recent Swamp Notes discussion on Apec and the escalating control of artificial intelligence by the Chinese government and Big Tech, it’s worth pondering the implications for politics if AI displaces numerous jobs in the near future.
The shift in the technological workforce due to technology and globalization has significantly influenced politics in developed nations. This trend, from the emergence of figures like Donald Trump to the rise of both right and left-wing movements in Europe, reflects the struggle to reconcile global market demands with voter interests. The decline of traditional manufacturing roles has fueled populist sentiments and divisive political landscapes.
The OECD’s cautionary statement last summer highlighted that AI disruptions are likely to impact white-collar professions, which constitute a substantial portion of the workforce in affluent countries like the US. Women and individuals of Indian descent are especially vulnerable due to their significant representation in these roles, a trend already observable in office environments. Particularly at risk are online consultants, as evidenced by John Burn-Murdoch’s research.
The potential addition of new demographic groups facing job displacement, alongside the existing discontent among men affected by automation and outsourcing, paints a bleak picture. Elon Musk’s assertion of an imminent jobless future raises concerns about the societal repercussions, including increased despair, social unrest, and political turmoil as noted by researchers like Angus Deaton and Anne Case.
While projections by Goldman Sachs suggest a possible doubling of productivity growth through AI, akin to the impact of the PC revolution, the benefits hinge on equitable distribution. Historically, technology advancements have widened wealth gaps until balanced by labor movements and regulatory interventions. Without proactive measures, the profound disruptions caused by AI could exacerbate global labor displacement and economic inequalities.
The emergence of new research, such as the National Bureau of Economic Research’s working papers, underscores the transformative potential of AI on society. Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson’s book “Power and Progress” delves into the implications, warning of a scenario where AI drastically reduces labor participation, posing challenges for policy interventions.
Jonathan Taplin’s latest book “The end of truth: How Four Entrepreneurs are Selling a Fantasy Coming of the Universe, Mars, and Crypto” sheds light on the aspirations of tech elites to transcend earthly confines. However, the complexity of addressing this issue extends beyond conventional solutions like universal basic income, as emphasized by Freud’s insight on the intrinsic human need for work and purpose.
In Silicon Valley, diverse perspectives on the AI-induced job crisis abound, reflecting a mix of optimism and skepticism. The discourse oscillates between envisioning novel job opportunities facilitated by technology and contemplating alternative sources of fulfillment beyond traditional employment. Notably, the concept of universal basic income garners attention as a potential remedy, albeit with practical challenges and societal disconnects.
Worldcoin’s innovative approach, championed by tech luminary Sam Altman, underscores the quest for inclusive wealth distribution through unique identification methods. However, the urgency to navigate the impending social upheaval necessitates a multifaceted approach encompassing job creation, redefining societal value systems, and equitable resource allocation amidst rapid technological advancements. The shared apprehension about the future underscores the critical need for proactive interventions to avert the dire consequences of unchecked AI disruption.
