Nearly three years following the incursion of demonstrators into the U.S. Capitol, a multitude of unfounded election conspiracy theories persist in circulation on both cable news and social media platforms. These theories encompass notions such as voter suicide, late-night ballot dumps, and the surreptitious transportation of ballots in backpacks.
As the forthcoming presidential election approaches, authorities are anticipating a further escalation of these fabrications. The tools and mechanisms that propagate these falsehoods are becoming increasingly potent, while the countermeasures designed to combat them are progressively weakening.
Furthermore, a recent survey indicates a pervasive lack of trust among Americans towards the major political parties and the primary election procedures.
Former President Donald Trump has played a significant role in perpetuating the baseless claim that elections are untrustworthy nationwide. A majority of Republicans, amounting to 57%, believe that Democrat Joe Biden was not legitimately elected as president.
The utilization of advanced artificial intelligence tools has significantly lowered the cost and complexity involved in disseminating deceptive information that could potentially influence voters and sway election outcomes. Moreover, social media platforms, which previously invested substantial resources in fact-checking, have shifted their priorities.
Oren Etzioni, an artificial intelligence analyst and professor emeritus at the University of Washington, has forewarned of an impending surge in false information. Despite his hope for such predictions to be proven wrong, he remains deeply concerned about the current landscape.
Rise of Deepfakes in AI Technology
While manipulated images and videos related to elections are not novel, the approaching 2024 U.S. presidential election will mark the debut of sophisticated AI tools capable of rapidly generating convincing forgeries.
Deepfakes, which encompass fabricated images, videos, and audio clips, have already started surfacing in authentic presidential campaign advertisements. As the election draws near, more insidious iterations could circulate without proper labeling, potentially deceiving voters, as per Etzioni’s caution.
He illustrated potential scenarios where political figures like President Biden could be depicted falsely in critical situations or uttering statements they never actually made.
Leading up to the 2024 election, U.S. policymakers are scrutinizing Meta and X regarding AI-generated deepfakes.
Kathleen Hall Jamieson, an expert in propaganda and the director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania, highlighted the psychological impact of these fabricated materials on public perception.
While efforts are underway by Republicans, Democrats in Congress, and the Federal Election Commission to regulate these systems, definitive laws or regulations are yet to be established.
Several states have enacted laws mandating the labeling or prohibition of deepfakes that misrepresent candidates. Some social media giants, including YouTube and Meta, have implemented artificial labeling regulations. However, the continuous identification and apprehension of offenders remain uncertain.
Deterioration of Social Media Pillars
Elon Musk’s acquisition of Online and subsequent transformation into X has raised concerns regarding the platform’s integrity and influence.
Musk’s restructuring, which involved the removal of key features and personnel, has led to vulnerabilities in the platform’s verification processes, allowing for the proliferation of false information. Extremist accounts and conspiracy theories that were previously banned have been reinstated, fostering an environment that amplifies hate speech and misinformation.
While some view Musk’s actions as a necessary departure from perceived censorship, others argue that it has transformed a once valuable information source into an unregulated echo chamber.
Free Press, an advocacy organization promoting civil liberties in technology and media, has criticized X, Meta, and YouTube for dismantling 17 guidelines aimed at combating hate speech and propaganda in the lead-up to the 2024 election.
Although YouTube pledges to monitor misinformation related to current and future elections, it has refrained from removing content that falsely alleges widespread fraud in past U.S. elections. This policy shift is intended to uphold the freedom of open discourse, even on contentious topics.
The downsizing of moderation teams at X, Meta, and YouTube since 2020 has raised concerns about their ability to effectively monitor and moderate content.
The proliferation of unfounded claims has extended to alternative platforms like Telegram, Truth Social, and Gab, following the decline of TikTok and other less regulated apps. The encrypted nature of platforms like WhatsApp and Twitter poses challenges in detecting and mitigating the spread of misinformation.
Roberta Braga, founder of the Digital Democracy Institute of the Americas, anticipates a surge in sophisticated false narratives in 2024 but remains hopeful that societal resilience will prevail.
Impact of Trump’s Influence
Experts in propaganda are wary of the potential impact of Trump’s prominent role in the Republican presidential primary on the dissemination of misinformation and the risk of vigilante actions or violence.
Trump’s persistent claims of victory in the 2020 election, despite evidence to the contrary, have fueled mistrust in the electoral process. His warnings of impending election fraud in 2024 have spurred supporters to take preemptive measures to safeguard the integrity of the vote.
Bret Schafer, a senior fellow at the Alliance for Securing Democracy, underscores the link between political disillusionment and criminal behavior, emphasizing the critical role of trust in upholding democracy.
Response of Election Leaders
In preparation for the anticipated surge in election denial narratives, election officials have undertaken extensive efforts to educate and inform voters.
Jena Griswold, the Colorado secretary of state, has spearheaded educational campaigns on social media and television to combat misinformation and enhance voter awareness.
Steve Simon, the Minnesota secretary of state, leads the #Trusted Info2024 campaign, positioning election officials as reliable sources of information. Additionally, legislative efforts in Minnesota aim to protect election workers, prevent the dissemination of false information, and penalize those who intentionally spread misinformation.
Local initiatives, such as Oconto County Clerk Kim Pytleski’s outreach efforts in Wisconsin, aim to foster voter trust by engaging directly with communities and dispelling misconceptions about the electoral process.
The collective efforts of election leaders, policymakers, and advocacy groups underscore the importance of combating misinformation and safeguarding the integrity of the electoral process in the face of evolving technological challenges.
