- Businesses are projected to rapidly embrace AI technology in the next decade, as indicated by a recent study.
- AI has the potential to significantly impact and automate over 50% of tasks.
- An Artificial rebellion is foreseen to contribute significantly to the growth of the US economy.
Over the next ten years, generative AI models like ChatGPT could potentially contribute up to $1 trillion to the US economy. This aligns with a study on the economic implications of relational AI conducted by Oxford Economics and Cognizant, released on January 10.
The research also highlighted the substantial influence AI is poised to have on more than half of the tasks crucial to the US market, potentially leading to job displacements and challenges in securing new employment opportunities for some individuals.
The study utilized a model to simulate varying levels of AI adoption by companies—low, medium, and high—and their corresponding impacts on employment prospects.
The primary focus of the model was on how swiftly businesses might integrate AI technology. With 13% of businesses already utilizing AI, the authors referred to the AI adoption level in 2023 as the “experimental phase,” coinciding with the release of ChatGPT by OpenAI in November 2022.
Depending on the model’s aggressiveness, AI adoption is expected to escalate rapidly to 31% within the next four to eight years and nearly 50% within a decade. While implementation costs are projected to taper off after a decade, they are anticipated to continue rising for another 20 years as they approach full implementation across all adoption levels.
The study also examined 18,000 tasks crucial to the US economy, encompassing activities like content creation, market research, image generation, report generation, and email communication. Furthermore, it delved into the potential impact of AI on around 1,000 professions involved in these tasks, including roles in management, sales, design, media, and law.
The analysis assessed the extent to which AI could automate tasks within each job category:
- Approximately 5% of high-value tasks in 90% of jobs are projected to be automated by AI.
- At least 25% of high-value tasks in 52% of jobs are expected to be influenced by AI, with an 8% job impact observed in 2023.
According to the study, around 9% of the US workforce could face job displacements due to AI within the next decade. Moreover, approximately 1% of the total workforce may encounter challenges in securing new employment opportunities, given the potential mismatch between their existing skills and the demands of an AI-driven job market.
Other studies have also predicted significant labor disruptions on a global scale. Goldman Sachs estimates that AI could disrupt over 300 million jobs worldwide, while McKinsey suggests that by 2030, at least 12 million Americans may need to seek new employment opportunities.
AI deployment is anticipated to spur economic growth, with a projected increase of at least 1% in US productivity and potentially up to 3.5% over the next decade. This growth could translate to a boost of \(477 billion to \)1 trillion in the US GDP annually over the same period.
The study by Cognizant and Oxford Economics underscores the transformative potential of AI technology in reshaping the US economy, prompting the need for proactive measures to harness its benefits and adapt swiftly.
The impact of AI-induced disruptions is expected to differ from previous technological advancements, particularly in its effect on information-centric tasks rather than manual labor. AI is foreseen to have a more pronounced influence on tasks related to information processing, such as credit assessment, coding, web development, database management, and design, rather than displacing manual labor or process-oriented knowledge work.
The study suggests that AI has already replaced significant portions of critical tasks in certain job roles, with the potential for further automation in the coming decade. This trend is corroborated by a McKinsey report indicating that high-income earners may be particularly affected by AI-driven technologies.
Even CEOs are not immune to the reverberating effects of AI, with the study suggesting that AI could assist in tasks such as data analysis, competitive analysis, and decision-making for at least a quarter of CEOs.
The study’s authors emphasize that the impending AI transformation should not be viewed as a doomsday scenario for the workforce. Instead, they posit it as an opportunity to reassess training and skill development, ushering in a new era of individual growth and strategic business planning.
Supporting this optimistic outlook is a recent McKinsey study suggesting that AI is more likely to enhance work processes rather than eliminate jobs. The creators of the study stress the importance of upskilling programs to support areas like business strategy and AI management as AI becomes ubiquitous in workplaces, highlighting the need for dedicated time for training and education initiatives.
