Will the traffic from search engines to your website decrease by 25% by 2026 due to the emergence of generative AI answer engines? This is the prediction put forth by Gartner, a renowned technological research and consulting firm.
Significance of the Issue: SEO and PPC play a critical role in driving valuable traffic to websites, which ultimately translates into revenue and profit through various forms of conversions important to your brand.
The proliferation of generative AI technologies has sparked concerns that platforms like Google’s Search Generative Experience and other AI-powered answer engines could divert traffic that previously would have landed on your website or escalate advertising costs. There are also assertions that ChatGPT is already encroaching on Google’s market share.
The Forecast: Gartner anticipates a shift towards generational AI conversational assistants such as ChatGPT and Claude over traditional search engines like Google. If this materializes, it would necessitate a significant adjustment in search marketing strategies, encompassing both paid and organic approaches. Gartner’s forecast states:
- “By 2026, there will be a 25% decline in traditional search engine traffic, with AI chatbots and virtual agents gaining precedence over search marketing.”
Counterpoint: Predictions, including the one shared in a recent press release based on subscription-only research, are essentially educated guesses. While Gartner’s predictions are usually well-informed, they are not infallible.
Even respected analyst firms are seldom held accountable for inaccuracies, as retrospective validation is rare. For instance, Gartner previously predicted that 50% of consumers would curtail social media engagement by 2025, only to later revise this projection.
Forecast for 2028: Gartner had previously projected that “organic search traffic would plummet by 50% or more as consumers adopt generative AI-driven search.” This projection was supported by a survey conducted in August 2023 among 299 consumers, revealing that:
- 79% of respondents anticipated using AI-enhanced search within the next year.
- 70% of consumers exhibited some level of trust in generative AI search outcomes.
In light of this prediction, Gartner advised brands reliant on SEO to explore alternative channels as a means of diversification:
- Emily Weiss, senior principal researcher at Gartner, suggested, “Marketing leaders whose brands heavily rely on SEO should explore allocating resources towards experimenting with other channels to broaden their reach.”
No Certainties: The accuracy of Gartner’s predictions will only be confirmed in 2026. It is advisable to approach Gartner’s forecasts akin to interpreting a ranking factor correlation study released by an SEO tool/platform – informative, potentially useful directionally, but not beyond reproach.
About the author
Danny Goodwin has served as the Managing Editor of Search Engine Land & Search Marketing Expo – SMX since 2022. He initially joined Search Engine Land as a Senior Editor in 2022. Apart from covering the latest search marketing news, he oversees Search Engine Land’s SME (Subject Matter Expert) program and contributes to organizing U.S. SMX events.
Goodwin has been involved in editing and reporting on the evolving trends in search and digital marketing since 2007. His prior roles include Executive Editor of Search Engine Journal (2017-2022), managing editor of Momentology (2014-2016), and editor of Search Engine Watch (2007-2014). He is a frequent speaker at major search conferences and virtual events and has been a recognized authority in various publications and podcasts for his expertise.
