Famous roboticist Rodney Brooks, a co-founder of iRobot, the company behind the creation of the Roomba, remains vigilant in monitoring the Artificial Intelligence (AI) landscape. Despite the pervasive enthusiasm from advocates he believes are in need of a reality check, Brooks paints a less optimistic picture of the near future of AI from his perspective.
As the former chairman of MIT’s AI and machine labs, Brooks issues a cautionary message in his latest monthly Predictions Checklist for the tech industry. He notes that, despite the unprecedented levels of success, the AI market is simply following a familiar hype cycle that has characterized the 60+ year history of AI.
Brooks foresees a potential stagnation in advancements in the field before the next significant breakthrough, which could lead to a challenging period ahead. Considering the projected value of the sector exceeding $1 trillion within the next decade, such a dry spell could have severe consequences.
Referencing Brooks’ scorecard, as mentioned in The Los Angeles Times, there is a sense of foreboding as he advises, “Get your thick coats now.” The looming possibility of another AI spring or even a full-fledged tech winter suggests a chilling forecast.
In his earlier prognostications on technological progress, Brooks set specific timelines for anticipated advancements, categorizing them as “Not In My Lifetime” (NIML) if they were not expected before 2050. Over the years, he evaluates the accuracy of these predictions as either precise, overly pessimistic, or overly optimistic.
Brooks’ foresight has often been on point. For instance, his 2018 prediction hinted at a potential breakthrough in AI between 2023 and 2027, a timeframe that aligned with the rise of prominent speech models like OpenAI’s ChatGPT. This trend saw major tech companies capitalizing on intelligent bots, reaping billions in revenue.
However, as time progresses, Brooks maintains a more cautious stance. While the advent of artificial general intelligence, often hyped by industry leaders as imminent, remains a distant prospect in Brooks’ eyes, labeled as “Not In My Lifetime.”
Expressing skepticism, Brooks doubts the feasibility of achieving “a machine that appears as intelligent, attentive, and ethical as a dog” before 2048, emphasizing the substantial challenges involved in such endeavors.
Despite his reservations, Brooks does not paint a bleak picture of the AI sector. Instead, he underscores the prolonged timeline required for significant technological strides, raising questions about the patience of the industry’s financial supporters to engage in the long game.
