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### Prediction: By 2028, 75% of Enterprise Software Developers Could Utilize AI

Dev teams must beware inflated expectations of tech leadership, Gartner warns

By 2028, as projected by Gartner, a significant shift is expected in the adoption of AI script assistants among business software designers, with an estimated 75 percent utilizing these assistants, a substantial increase from the less than 10 percent reported in early 2023.

A recent study involving 598 software executive leaders from large enterprises revealed that by the second quarter of 2023, approximately 63 percent of businesses were either piloting, deploying, or had already integrated Artificial script assistants into their operations.

Despite the increasing prevalence of AI-aided coding tools in the market, Philip Walsh, a prominent researcher at Gartner, cautions about the potential disparity between the anticipated productivity enhancements envisioned by IT governance and the practical experiences of application teams.

According to Walsh, vendors promoting AI-driven coding solutions have been touting remarkable productivity boosts of up to 50%. Concurrently, a notable portion of Chief Information Officers (CIOs) and technology leaders, accounting for 34%, perceive AI code generation as a transformative factor in their software development endeavors.

However, Walsh highlights the necessity for development teams to temper the expectations of their senior management, as the actual benefits may not align with the lofty promises made by vendors, despite the escalating popularity of IoT coding tools.

Upon closer scrutiny, it becomes apparent that the efficacy of AI-powered coding tools may be confined to specific tasks. For example, a comparative study employing an A-B test scenario among teams engaged in JavaScript web server development showcased the limitations and nuances of utilizing AI coding tools. Additionally, the creation of a Python template served as a standard benchmark for evaluation.

Walsh emphasizes that coding, while pivotal, represents only a fraction of the energy expended throughout the entire software development lifecycle, encompassing planning, design, research, testing, implementation, and monitoring. Hence, even if coding tasks witness a 50% acceleration, the overall impact on cycle time may only yield a modest 10% enhancement.

In navigating this landscape, development teams are urged to effectively communicate with senior management, steering them away from unrealistic vendor-driven expectations. Walsh advocates for a culture of experimentation and learning within development teams, fostering an environment conducive to leveraging the full potential of new tools.

Ultimately, CIOs are advised to cultivate a culture of open communication, experimentation, and resilience, empowering their teams to explore and innovate with the aim of maximizing the benefits offered by AI coding tools.

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Tags: , , Last modified: April 13, 2024
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